Indonesia plans to carry out B40 in January
Because case, prices might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will need additional 3 mln heaps feedstock, GAPKI says
Malaysia palm oil benchmark at highest since mid-2022
India might withdraw import tax inflation, Mistry says
(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil criteria rate)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recuperate in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however costs are expected to remain elevated due to planned expansion of the country's biodiesel mandate, industry analysts stated.
The palm oil benchmark price in Malaysia has actually increased more than 35% this year, lifted by slow output and Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to reduce fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in leading producer Indonesia is anticipated to recuperate by 1.5 million metric loads compared with an estimated drop of simply over a million lots this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study company Oil World, stated he anticipates Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million heaps next year after a 2.5 million lot drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, supply from somewhere else and of other veggie oils is seen tightening up.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip slightly next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million tons in 2024.
"We would need a recovery in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke stated.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The rate surge in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has actually been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke stated, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said extra feedstock of around 3 million heaps will be required for B40 implementation, eroding export supply.
The present palm oil premium has actually currently caused palm to lose market share versus other oils, Mielke added.
Malaysian palm oil rates are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric heap in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest because mid-2022.
"Sentiment right now is red-hot and very bullish, we have to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods business Godrej International.
He anticipated the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to
consider postponing
B40 execution on concern about its influence on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated top palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import task walking
enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
1
Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, but Biodiesel
elizabetkroeme edited this page 1 month ago